Day Trading Newsletter 03-07-05
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Newsletter Archive - March 2005 Archive
Day Trading It Newsletter - March 07, 2005
Stock Market Wrap Up

Indices
Dow + 107.52 at 10,940.55  -   Nasdaq + 12.21 at 2,070.61  -  S&P 500 + 11.65 at 1,222.12 

Market Wrap
(Briefing):

Stronger than expected job creation, absent worries of inflation, ignited a broad-based rally that kept a bullish bias intact and closed the blue chip indices at 3 1/2-year highs... All three major Dow Indices hit new 52-week highs, as the Dow Industrials surpassed the 10,900 level for the first time since June 2001 as gains were realized in 27 of its 30 components... The S&P 500 erased 2005 losses while the S&P 400 MidCap (+1.1%) and the S&P 600 Small Cap 600 Index (+1.2%) both touched all-time highs and the Russell 2000 Index (+1.0%) also surged but remains just shy of a new 2005 high, as the index touched 654.27 on Jan. 3... The Nasdaq, however, despite a strong performance, is still off roughly 4.8% in 2005... Feb nonfarm payrolls checked in at 262K (consensus 252K), recording the largest gain since Oct. 2004 and surpassing the 200K mark for just the second time since May, as manufacturing jobs increased for the first time since Aug... An unexpected 0.2% increase in the unemployment rate, to 5.4% from last month's figure of 5.2%, raised an eyebrow amongst bond traders, but did little to alter the minds of equity investors as average hourly earnings - which acts as an inflationary measure through wage increases - and the average workweek, both came in unchanged at +0.2% and 33.7 hours, respectively... The data translated into a 2.4% annual rate of growth and remains consistent with real GDP growth expectations of at least 3.5-4.0% in the first half of 2005, clearly sustaining economic expansion but without increasing inflation worries and accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes... Lower bond yields were also contributing factors behind the overall positive sentiment, as Treasurys closed near their highs of the session amid easing inflationary fears and an unexpected increase in the underlying unemployment rate... Bonds initially sold off, as the nonfarm payrolls figure was below a more aggressively inflated "whisper" number, but quickly recovered as the benchmark 10-year note finished up 17 ticks yielding 4.30%... Materials (+2.8%) was the best performing of the 10 S&P economic sectors, surging at the expense of a declining dollar as producers (i.e. steel) continue to increase prices to offset higher raw material costs... The greenback fell against every major currency, falling 1.0%% against the euro (1.3239) and 0.6% against the yen (104.51) as the employment data, despite beating consensus estimates, fell short of some economists' forecasts... Oversold conditions and improving fundamentals helped extend gains in airline (+3.0%), which in turn provided a lift to transportation, while interest-rate sensitive groups like homebuilding (+3.3%), financial (+1.2%) and utility (+1.7%) benefited from declining bond yields... Energy (+1.1%), despite oil prices closing up just 0.4% at $53.78/bbl also finished higher as did health care, retail, consumer staples and telecom services... News of a $10 bln stock buyback program at DELL (40.87 +0.87) added support for Computer hardware (+0.9%) while software (+0.8%) got a boost in part by an upgrade on Oracle (ORCL 13.28 +0.19), offsetting modest weakness in chip stocks... Semiconductor closed lower following downgrades on a handful of leading semi cap equipment makers (i.e. AMAT, NVLS and KLAC)... Biotech (-1.3%) also failed to take advantage of the rally after Biogen Idec (BIIB 37.53 -1.80) and Elan (ELN 5.73 -0.92) confirmed a second Tysabri patient suffering from a potentially fatal infection... Separately, investors also got a read on Jan factory orders and Feb consumer sentiment, both of which came in fairly close to expectations, but neither report had much of an influence on the market...NYSE Adv/Dec 2557/760...NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1784/1339.


Trade system guidelines (edited):
Only available to Newsletter Subscribers.

Today's Picks - March 07, 2005


1.   TOL - Toll Brothers

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 90.10

2.   ATI - Allegheny Technologies

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 26.35

3.   PHM - Pulte Homes

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 79.68

4.   WLP - Wellpoint Networks

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 126.89

5.   EXC - Exelon

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 46.85

6.   IR - Ingersoll-Rand'A'

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 87.44

7.   CAT - Caterpillar

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 99.96

8.   JNJ - Johnson & Johnson

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 67.75

9.   ETR - Entergy Corp

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 71.26

10.   JCP - JC Penney

Entry Date Exit Date Position Entry Price Target Price Stop Price Max P/L
03-07 Long Above 15 high Sell 1/2 once risk covered Below LOD at time of setup


* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 47.14

==============================
EOD = End of day.
LOD = Low of day.
PDC = Previous Day's Close.
S/R = Support/Resistance.
==============================

DISCLAIMER: Trading in securities may not be suitable for all individuals.
Consult your broker or other professional to determine your suitability.
The discussions provided by Day Trading It are for educational purposes
only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell the
referenced security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Please keep in mind that these picks are chosen up to 12 hours before the markets open. During this time conditions, which will effect entry and exit on the above listed ideas, may change.


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