Indices
Dow - 6.72 at 10,626.36  I   Nasdaq + 0.67 at 2,016.42  I  S&P 500 + 2.14 at 1,190.21 

Market Wrap
(Briefing):

Surging oil prices again weighed on sentiment, as investors found only enough comfort from respectable economic data, strong earnings reports and a flurry of new deals to close the indices in subdued fashion... While the S&P and Nasdaq eked out modest gains, the Dow closed just below the flat line, dragged lower by extended weakness in General Motors (GM 28.35 -0.66)... Getting under the skin of many an investor again were higher oil prices, as choppy trading in the commodity played havoc with equities from start to finish... While crude oil futures earlier flirted with $58/bbl, amid concerns that OPEC's recently raised output quotas may not be large enough to meet demand, late-day profit taking actually closed the commodity to the downside ($56.40/bbl -$0.06)... Energy, however, still paced the way to the upside while strength in Steel (+1.8%) was enough to offset a stronger dollar and a sell off in Gold ($439.10/oz. -1.2%) to close Materials (+1.0%) in positive territory... Stronger than expected Q3 earnings from FedEx (FDX 96.84 -0.09) and an analyst upgrade in Union Pacific (UNP 66.16 +1.29) kept Transportation in focus while strong earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS 110.34 +0.37) and Morgan Stanley (MWD 57.07 -0.88) were enough to lift Brokerage (+0.6%) but not Financial (-0.4%)... Gains in Semiconductor and Hardware offset losses in Disk Drive and Networking while Utility, Telecom Services, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary were influential leaders to the upside... Failing to take advantage of falling bond yields was Homebuilding (-1.2%), which continued to consolidate after hitting historic highs two weeks ago, while Retail and Drug also finished lower... Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims fell 10K to 318K (consensus 315K), suggesting a lower level of layoffs and improving labor conditions, as the data were consistent with the near 315K levels reported over the last several weeks... More importantly, since today's claims were for the week in which the March payroll survey was conducted, the data also indicated a good possibility of another fairly large (200K+) payroll gain when the employment report is released on April 1... Also of note was the Mar. Philadelphia Fed Index, which checked in at an initially disappointing 11.4, versus forecasts of 20.0... While the initial read showed the slowest pace of economic expansion in the region in 20 months, inflation concerns were kept in check by a decline in prices paid... Prices paid fell to 29.7, down 32% from Feb and 55% from Jan's read of 66.1... Also acting as a supportive factor for stocks were reports that an investment consortium acquired Toys R Us (TOY 26.00 +1.23) last night for about $5.7 bln and news surrounding the possibility of Viacom (VIA 37.33 +0.33) splitting its assets into two publicly traded companies... MCI's (MCIP 23.27 -0.48) receipt of a revised $8.45 bln merger from Qwest (Q 3.75 -0.07), a deal that should find more closure at the end of business on Mar. 28, also made headlines, but was not well received... Short covering, technical trade and a worse than expected headline read on the claims data lifted Treasurys, as the benchmark 10-year note closed up 11 ticks to yield 4.46%... Separately, Feb leading indicators rose 0.1% (consensus +0.1%), but as a lagging indicator has had little impact on market activity...NYSE Adv/Dec 1953/1335...NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1490/1564.

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Trade system guidelines (edited):
Only available to Newsletter Subscribers.

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Today's Picks - March 18, 2005

1.   CCJ - Cameco Corp

Entry Date	Exit Date	Position	Entry Price	Target Price	Stop Price	Max P/L
03-18		Long	Above 15 high	Sell 1/2 once risk covered	Below LOD at time of setup
	* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 46.20

2.   USU - Usec Inc

Entry Date	Exit Date	Position	Entry Price	Target Price	Stop Price	Max P/L
03-18		Long	Above 15 high	Sell 1/2 once risk covered	Below LOD at time of setup
	* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 17.70

3.   BNI - Burlington Northern

Entry Date	Exit Date	Position	Entry Price	Target Price	Stop Price	Max P/L
03-18		Long	Above 15 high	Sell 1/2 once risk covered	Below LOD at time of setup
	* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 54.91

4.   MIK - Michaels Stores

Entry Date	Exit Date	Position	Entry Price	Target Price	Stop Price	Max P/L
03-18		Long	Above 15 high	Sell 1/2 once risk covered	Below LOD at time of setup
	* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 35.50

5.   CNX - CONSOL Energy

Entry Date	Exit Date	Position	Entry Price	Target Price	Stop Price	Max P/L
03-18		Long	Above 15 high	Sell 1/2 once risk covered	Below LOD at time of setup
	* Please Note: If the stock gaps down at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades above 48.40

6.   TOL - Toll Brothers

Entry Date	Exit Date	Position	Entry Price	Target Price	Stop Price	Max P/L
03-18		Short	Below 15 min low	Cover 1/2 once risk covered	Above HOD at time of setup
	* Please Note: If the stock gaps up at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades below 76.68

7.   BDK - Black & Decker

Entry Date	Exit Date	Position	Entry Price	Target Price	Stop Price	Max P/L
03-18		Short	Below 15 min low	Cover 1/2 once risk covered	Above HOD at time of setup
	* Please Note: If the stock gaps up at the open do not enter the trade unless it trades below 80.10

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EOD = End of day.
LOD = Low of day.
PDC = Previous Day's Close.
S/R = Support/Resistance.
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